‘Very Strong’ El Niño Likely Through Winter 2026-27, Elevated Climate Risks for India
‘Very Strong’ El Niño Likely Through Winter 2026-27, Elevated Climate Risks for India
IN · Published Sep 29, 2026
• The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has reported that El Niño is strengthening and is expected to become 'very strong' during late 2026 and early
• The Niño 3.4 index reached +3.0°C in mid-September 2026, and forecasts indicate a 100% probability of El Niño persisting through February 2027, with a gradual decline to 61% by mid-

Impact & Risks

India faces elevated climate risks due to the strengthening El Niño, which could lead to weaker monsoon rainfall, warmer and drier winters, and stress on agricultural output and water availability. However, the positive IOD may counterbalance some of these effects, potentially supporting rainfall in certain regions. The combination of El Niño and IOD could result in uneven weather patterns, impacting farming, water resources, and overall climate stability.

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